April 9, 2008

Recession is like forest fire - - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers, the investment guru, speaks from Singapore in an interview with Money Morning on April 8th about US Economy.

"Because of such strategic missteps, U.S. consumers could be facing a long and painful economic malaise, similar to the 'lost decade' of 1990s Japan, or the stagflation-riddled 1970s in the United States, Rogers said."

"Rogers also said that:

  • Although the United States faces perhaps its most daunting economic challenges in at least a generation, "in America, most people do not understand that there is a problem."
  • Because of these weak-dollar efforts - as well as the billion-dollar bailouts - "America is now the largest debtor the world has ever seen. What’s happening in the U.S. is not going to be fun.
  • Although the central bank seems intent on engineering a U.S. economic rebound by creating an ultra-weak dollar, no country in history has ever emerged from a serious financial crisis by "debasing its currency."
"Recessions are usually good for the system. They clean out the excesses. The outrageous part is that it will cost more to try to prevent a recession than to have the recession."

"In nature, there’s the natural phenomenon of forest fires. The forest fires are pretty terrible when they’re going on. But nature invented them to clean out the forest so that the forest could then come and grow from a new, sound foundation. That’s what recessions do, too. They’re a natural phenomenon. "

"Nobody likes it when we have them any more than anybody likes a forest fire. But in the end, everybody’s better off. Bernanke thinks he can stop this; he’s going to very well destroy the system by trying to save it."

So here we go: how bad US Economy could go? How it will impact us in every day life? For over half an year the media have been debating whether US economy is in recession with all kinds of index trying to persuade each other. Mortgage numbers have been arising constantly and our 'poor' neighbor moved in and moved out in a few months with all the furnitures and belongings from a big house. On TV more and more decent couples declare their bankruptcy or mortgage status. I truly hope that is only happening to small part of the population on the credit disaster for their poor finance management. However after reading Jim Roger's interview, I cannot help wondering what if the country we live becomes bankrupted while we keep our sanity all the time?! I cannot imagine what would be coming then. Are we strong enough just like our parents bearing a wartime life to face a financial world collapse? Maybe we should simply have faith on the balancing forces of nature so that "in the end everybody's better off"...

4 comments:

oasis said...

Even in bad times, my hon is still hot.

Polarbear said...

Wawawawa....
Can you contribute a bit your "intelligence" here? :P

oasis said...

Jim says he is being patriotic by following the wishes of the policy makers and selling the dollar. I do my duty by shorting US stocks.

Polarbear said...

That sounds a smart move.